1、2023 retail industry outlook22023 retail industry outlookContents Introduction 3Economic outlook for the retail industry 4A challenging environment 5Lessons from leaders 7Imperatives for profitability 9Summary 12Endnotes 142023 retail industry outlook3Retailers should embrace the changing consumer a

2、nd consider strategic investments that could enable profitable growth during inflationary timesChange can be good,but constant change can be daunting.Retailers today are feeling the hangover of such volatility occurring in the most condensed time frame of any recent business cycle.Retail executives

3、are preparing for the tides to shift again in 2023 as the reality of economic headwinds,geopolitical strife,a rapidly changing consumer,supply chain disruptions,and lingering labor issues come into play.As we head into the new year,only one-third of retail executives surveyed are very confident abou

4、t maintaining or improving profit margins in what are expected to be turbulent times.1 Of course,many of their top concerns are beyond their control.Notably,nearly all executives surveyed expect inflation to pressure their profit margins.Six in 10 respondents expect inflation to raise operating cost

5、s,and while passing higher prices on to consumers has been the norm,many question how long they can continue the trend.These retail executives are also predicting hard times for consumers,with nearly all anticipating diminished consumption in 2023,resulting from rising financial concerns.In addition

6、,many retailers face difficult year-over-year comparisons from nesting preferences during pandemic lockdowns that created a strong durable goods cycle.Other retailers benefited from government stimuli and consumers returning to work and school and are now left forecasting and providing guidance base

7、d on trends that can be difficult to decipher,if structural or episodic.But the retail outlook is not all gloom and doom;retailers have learned much about resiliency in the past few years.Massive demand fluctuations during the pandemic forced retailers to rethink archaic systems in favor of more pli

8、able operations.Seemingly overnight,retailers rolled out health and safety protocols and established omnichannel capabilities.And they learned that rapidly evolving consumer preferences require more effective analytics and tools to build loyalty.If anything,the past few years should give executives

9、confidence in their ability to weather the next storm.The work for executives in 2023 is to advance the innovations created during the pandemic:to drive more profit from the curated experiences,last-mile options,and conveniences that retailers rolled outall at a time when the purse strings may need

10、to tighten.To check the pulse of retail executives,we asked 50 leaders about their expectations regarding challenges and opportunities in the upcoming year.We wanted to better understand what traits separate leaders from the rest of the pack and analyze planned strategies and investments for 2023.Th

11、e results provide a unique outlook on how todays market,future expectations,and changing consumer needs inform strategies for the year(s)ahead.IntroductionThree key economic trends will likely influence retail sales.2 First,a slowing economy will keep retail sales growth in check.3 In our baseline s

12、cenario(55%probability),we forecast GDP growth to slow to 0.9%in 2023 from an estimated 2%in 2022 and 5.9%in 2021.4 A relatively healthy labor market will,however,continue to boost sales.And there is a significant chance that a recession would make things much worse.In the event of a recession(which

13、 Deloitte rates at a 35%probability),the economy would contract,and unemployment would rise.Such a turn of events would likely hit consumer and business demand harder than expected,thereby denting retail sales.Second,inflation has lowered consumers purchasing power,despite gains in nominal income du

14、e to the strong labor market.Even though nominal average weekly earnings have increased by 8.3%since December 2020,real earnings have fallen by 5%.5 This will weigh on consumer demand and,hence,retail sales volume.Rising prices,however,will raise the nominal value of retail sales.Figure 1 shows nomi

15、nal retail sales and real retail sales6 since February 2020,with the two series diverging since March 2021 due to the impact of inflation.While nominal sales have risen 11.7%since March 2021,real sales are down by 0.7%.Also,high home prices and rising mortgage rates will dent demand for housing,ther

16、eby affecting sales at store types that include building materials dealers and furniture and home furnishings.Third,consumer spending7 on services has been picking up steadily as consumers return to bars and restaurants,take vacations,and enjoy sporting events as they did before the pandemic.To some

17、 extent,consumers are dipping into their savings to make up for what they missed during 2020 and 2021.The personal saving rate is now at 3.1%,much lower than pre-pandemic levels.A shift in spending to services will therefore weigh on retail sales at stores selling consumer goods.However,the transiti

18、on to services is expected to provide some tailwind to food services and drinking venues.Overall,we expect real personal consumer expenditures(PCE)on durable goods to contract by 1.8%in 2023.In contrast,services PCE is expected to rise 3.6%in 2023,according to our baseline scenario(figure 2).Figure

19、1.While retail sales volume is slowing,nominal value of sales has gone up due to inflationFigure 2.Consumer spending in durables is expected to contract by 1.8%in 2023Economic outlook for the retail industryNotes:Forecasts are by the Deloitte US Economics team.Sources:United States Department of Com

20、merce;Deloitte Services LP economic analysis.Notes:The data is seasonally adjusted.Real retail sales are calculated by adjusting nominal sales with headline inflation.Sources:United States Department of Commerce;Deloitte Services LP economic analysis.2023 retail industry outlook4A note from Deloitte

21、 US Economists Danny Bachman and Akrur Barua7580859095100105110115120125130135Feb 20 Jun 20 Oct 20 Feb 21 Jun 21 Oct 21 Feb 22 Jun 22 Oct 22Nominal value of retail salesReal retail salesIndex of retail sales(Feb 2020=100)-10-505101520252016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026PCEDurable

22、 goodsNondurable goodsServicesGrowth in PCE and components(%)Forecasts2023 retail industry outlook5A changing relationship with consumers As noted in the economic outlook,shifting consumer behavior will likely weigh heavily on retailers in 2023.And other consumer transformations will likely compound

23、 the issue.Retailers role in the consumer journey has changed.The pandemic accelerated a trend already in motion:Consumers expect the best price in the most convenient way possible.To compete,retailers have rolled out the actual(and virtual)red carpet,offering fast last-mile services like curbside p

24、ickup and same-day delivery,personal shoppers,fit predicting tools,and payment plans.And retailers have met consumers where they arefrom traditional brick-and-mortar stores to metaverse storefronts and everywhere in between.So,it may come as no surprise that customer acquisition and retention costs

25、are rising.Even before the pandemic and discussion of the metaverse,acquisition costs increased by more than 60%between 2013 and 2018.8 This situation could become more problematic in 2023.Nearly all executives in our survey say consumers will expect a seamless shopping experience across channels in

26、 the upcoming year.But they expect consumers to be significantly more price-conscious,making consumers more likely to shift from source to source,powered by peer recommendations and price comparison shopping as they go.Two-thirds of surveyed executives expect price to be more important than brand or

27、 retailer loyalty,a potentially troubling predicament when investors are pressuring retailers to push price increases.9Over the next decade,consumer sociodemographic shifts are expected to occur at an unprecedented rate creating ever-expanding and diverse needs and desires.The emerging consumer is g

28、etting older,more obese,multi-ethnic,gender-positive,sex-positive,sexual-identity authentic,mobile,more digitally reliant,and less financially secure(see figure 3).They also have higher expectations for companies to uphold higher ESG(environmental,social,and governance)and DEI(diversity,equity,and i

29、nclusion)initiatives.10 In a 2021 study,three-quarters of Gen Z said sustainability was more important than brand when making a purchase decision.11 As the consumer transforms into a complex mosaic of unique needs,wants,and preferences,it may be an important moment of adaptation for an industry buil

30、t for mass production,distribution,and marketing.Nearly all executives surveyed felt the changing consumer would be a key challenge for the foreseeable future.Figure 3.The changing consumerWealth distributionA challenging environmentMiddle class holds less wealth than top 1%affluent Americans12A mil

31、lennial at age 40 has 20%less net worth than a boomer did at the same age13Non-white Americans buying power increased from 13%to 19%from 200020201430%of the nations wealth is held by 0.25%of US households15Rising obesity4 in 10 US adults were obese in 2020,compared to 3 in 10 in the late 90s16Fallin

32、g birthratesUS birthrates have declined 19%since 2007;2020 witnessed the lowest number of births since 197917PopulationThe population of age 65+grew by more than one-third in the past decade18Increasing diversityAs of 2018,48%of 6-to 21-year-olds were non-white,versus 39%in 2002192023 retail industr

33、y outlook6Simply put,retailers are getting squeezed from both sides of the value chainfrom demanding,price-conscious consumers to increasing operational and supply chain costs.As the industry deals with these immediate constraints,it also feels additional pressures from three hot-button issues:Organ

34、ized retail theft:Retail theft grew 22%from 2018 to 2019,accounting for$61.7 billion in losses.20 Some retailers have noted the problem has worsened during the 2022 holiday season and has gotten so dire that costs to cover lost products and security may require closing doors or raising prices.21 As

35、many experts anticipate an economic slowdown in 2023,it would not be surprising to see an even further increase in organized theft.Citing the 20082009 downturn,experts noted that retail theft sees an uptick in times of economic stress.22 ESG:Six in 10 executives surveyed said the industry will face

36、increased scrutiny over ESG decisions in 2023.However,when push comes to shove,many retailers say they will choose to focus on margin enhancement opportunities.More than half are planning minimal to no ESG investments,and the topic did not make the top five list of executive priorities.With only 26%

37、of 250 leading global retailers making commitments to carbon reduction based on Science Based Targets,23 they(and the world)may not be able to afford these initiatives being on the back burner for long.Labor issues:Seven in 10 executives surveyed said labor was the number one challenge heading into

38、2023.As of November 30,2022,879,000 retail jobs remained unfilled.24 Hiring and retaining employees has been a lingering issue,and competition for hourly workers remains fierce,with retailers forced to offer higher wages and more flexibility.The 12-month moving average of median wage growth for low-

39、skilled workers increased by 6.7%in November 2022,up from 3.8%the year prior.252023 retail industry outlook7Retailers dont expect a one-size-fits-all solution to uncovering profitable growth in this environment,but we wanted to investigate whether top-performing retailers exhibit any common behavior

40、s.A financial analysis of 100 retailers during the past three years found several key enablers for solid growth during the pandemic that put them in preferred positions.26 Pre-pandemic investments in e-commerce,expanding omnichannel capabilities,and optimizing portfolios to manage costs were all com

41、mon traits of outperformers.While most also benefited from the pandemic-induced demand,many are now facing tough year-over-year comparisons and a consumer base shifting from goods to services.For example,one retailer recently announced it was experiencing a slowdown with big-ticket discretionary ite

42、ms as it lapped difficult year-over-year comparisons but benefited from sales of consumables and travel services.27 Given these macro consumer shifts,sell-side Wall Street analysts are painting a bleak picture for the industry.Of the top 10 performing companies we examined,only three were predicted

43、to have EPS growth over the next three years.For those retailers that analysts expect to be top performers going forward,exposure to relatively resilient segments and strong balance sheets have bolstered their sentiment.In addition,meaningful progress on key long-term strategic initiatives to create

44、 efficiencies is seen in a favorable light:Supply chain Investing heavily in fulfillment capabilities Omnichannel Heightened focus on the customer experience and tapping into loyalty programs Digital Improving the margin profile of their e-commerce capabilitiesLessons from leadersLeaders have priori

45、tized areas for moderate to major investmentsUnlike laggards,which are planning for minimal to moderate investments across areas,leaders tend to prioritize investment in areas such as marketing and merchandising,omnichannel capabilities,digital transformation,and supply chain.2023 retail industry ou

46、tlook8Figure 4.Strategy vs.investmentPosition on chart indicates average across executives Source:2023 Deloitte retail outlook executive survey.Question:For the following strategies,please assess how advanced your companys strategy is relative to others in your industry.Please choose the answer that

47、 best describes the size of the financial investment your company will make in the following strategies in the upcoming year(2023).Note:N=50.Averages are based on scores assigned;Strategy=None(0)to Advanced(4);and Investments=None(0)to Major(3).Supply chainDigital transformationWorkforceM&AOmnichann

48、elPrivacyAlternative rev.ESGMarketingStrategy related to othersLaggardsSupply chainDigital transformationAlternative rev.WorkforceM&AOmnichannelPrivacyESGMarketingCompetitiveFunctionalLimitedPlanned investments in 2023LeadersNoneMinimalModerateMajorNoneMinimalModerateMajorNoneAdvancedAdvancedCompeti

49、tiveFunctionalLimitedNoneLeaders vs.laggardsWe see these themes echoed when we examine leaders with self-reported top-line and operating margin growth expectations in our survey.Leaders tend to be data-driven and can swiftly respond to the changing consumer.They prioritize investments in marketing a

50、nd merchandising,omnichannel capabilities,digital transformation,and supply chain.Given that many leaders are confident in their companys ability to successfully execute business strategy and maintain or grow margins even in turbulent times,their methods may act as a road map to a more profitable fu

51、ture.Executive Survey:Identifying leaders and laggardsFor every respondent,we assigned scores for their responses below.1.Confidence in their organizations ability to execute its business strategy successfully in 20232.Confidence in their organizations ability to maintain or improve profit margins i

52、n turbulent times3.Expectations about their companys year-over-year revenue growth in 20234.Expectations about their companys year-over-year change in operating profit margin in 2023Based on their aggregate scores,we split the sample of 50 respondents into three groups:Leaders(n=21)have the top one-

53、third of scores,Laggards(n=18)have the bottom one-third of scores,while the remaining comprise the middle(n=11).2023 retail industry outlook9Imperatives for profitabilityThe confluence of obstacles retailers face can make the next steps daunting.As such,we believe there are three key areas that reta

54、ilers canand shouldconsider now to help create efficiencies while addressing the changing consumer:last-mile capabilities,reverse logistics,and social commerce.Supply chain:Last-mile capabilitiesThe news hit in November that the pandemic-induced backlog at California ports had finally cleared,more t

55、han two years after it had begun.28 But supply chain problems persist.Several retailers announced that inventories were heavy heading into the holiday season29 as they worked through delayed shipments.In contrast,others warned of holiday shortages caused by zero-COVID policies that closed factories

56、in China.30 Given the continuing struggles,seven in 10 executives surveyed said supply chain disruption will impact retailers growth during 2023.That leaves only three in 10 very confident in navigating supply chain disruptions in the year ahead.At the other end of the chain,retailers struggle with

57、a shift in consumer expectations and digital preferences that may create a need for multiple last-mile solutions.As retailers look to solve inefficiencies,eight in 10 executives said they plan to make moderate to major investments to modernize their supply chain in 2023.Last-mile guzzles profitsDuri

58、ng the pandemic,demand for fast last-mile deliveries soared,and retailers obliged,often offering free services and shipping to offset a lack of in-store sales.For example,curbside pickup during the holiday shopping period more than doubled from 2019 to 2020 and held steady in subsequent years.31 Fre

59、e shipping was ubiquitous,but clawing back offerings now is proving difficult;more than half of consumers will bail on their basket when notified that they are responsible for shipping fees.32As these preferences for conveniences remain,retailers are left grappling with high-touch(e.g.,picking,packi

60、ng,and processing)transactions that are often unprofitable.Compounding the problem is that retailers may owe fees to third-party vendors that support the shopping journey with services,such as fit-predicting tools,product viewing technology,and financing.Companies pay more to grow their revenue in t

61、hese channels,which,in turn,shrinks their profits,all at a time when consumer spending will likely contract.Retailers are in a tough spot as nearly all executives surveyed say consumers will expect faster fulfillment in 2023,but rolling back services that have become table stakes could hurt loyalty.

62、Given the severity of the problem,it may be time to consider enticing nonprofitable customers to shop in-store while reserving the best services for loyal shoppers with large cart values.This could entail retailers offering in-store coupons or paid memberships that include last-mile perks.For exampl

63、e,one large retailer with a same-day membership service is seeing sales growth with the service,despite a minimum order threshold.33Seven in 10 leaders say they are very confident that they will be able to deliver a seamless experience to consumers across channels,compared with only two of 10 laggar

64、ds.To do so,retailers should consider creating more profitable last-mile delivery solutions by investing in automated micro-fulfillment centers(MFCs).MFCs can increase storage capacity and throughput rates,fill orders for multiple stores,and create efficiencies by freeing up employees who otherwise

65、would be picking orders.In addition,MFCs can expand the range of same-day and next-day services retailers can potentially reach.34Omnichannel:Reverse logisticsChanging consumer preferences for omnichannel services fueled by e-commerce have created headaches for reverse logistics.Consumers inability

66、to see,feel,and try on merchandise causes much higher return levels than in-store purchases(30%vs.10%).35 Compounding the problem,nearly half of consumers say they make“bracket”purchases,ordering multiple sizes and colors to find one item that works.36 The business of merchandise returns is massive.

67、It accounted for$761 billion in annual lost sales for US retailers alone in 2021.37 Nearly eight in 10 executive leaders from our survey foresee enhancing the omnichannel experience as a top growth opportunity in 2023,compared to half of the laggards.Executives should look at their reverse logistics

68、 systems to create frictionless transactions to reduce loss and save sales.As reinforced above,this also should be managed in the context of margin protection.2023 retail industry outlook10Understanding why returns happen in the first place can be a critical first step.Better analytics can help reta

69、ilers understand the products,reasons,and processes that drive returns online and in-store.In turn,retailers can gain the ability to provide accurate product information online(e.g.,sizes,images,and descriptions)while integrating tools to allow for more precise product representation(e.g.,augmented

70、reality).Such capabilities will likely be critical with the changing consumer.For example,when products are visualized in 3D,there is a 40%reduction in returns.38 And AI(artificial intelligence),as part of an improved analytics system,can also help with fraudulent returns by identifying trustworthy

71、customers and speeding up repayment times.39 These tools together not only save costs but also significantly impact the customer experience.Make returns frictionlessRetailers should embrace returns and exchanges,making them a marketable capability by simplifying them for all customers.A good return

72、policy coupled with easy and quick processes can be essential,as shoppers are more likely to be loyal to a retailer with easy returns.40 As consumer conveniences become table stakes,the time allowed for returns should meet customer expectations and be competitive but also encourage speed to prevent

73、seasonal expiration.Retailers should create processes by which customers can self-serve and receive prompt refunds,such as conditional credit,to avoid costly customer service calls that cost upward of$5 each.41 Save a saleEvery return can be an opportunity for retailers to save a sale,whether its by

74、 suggesting comparable products online or using in-store returns as an opportunity to engage the customer.It seems like a simple offering,yet providing exchanges online is an advanced capability not offered by many retailers.Allowing guests to exchange online purchases without having to return items

75、 first and then place a new order reduces costly touchpoints that can surpass product value.For example,a retailers net profit is typically up to 5 cents for every dollar in sales.However,a return can cost a retailer 1530 cents for every dollar in handling.42 Using data analytics to suggest a replac

76、ement size,color,or even a new style further supports a frictionless experience and may help save sales transactions.Retailers should also look to take advantage of in-store reverse logistics capabilities.In-person returns satisfy customers desire for immediate credit while reducing expenses for mai

77、led return delivery.They have the added benefit of allowing for staff engagement,creating opportunities to show similar styles or suggest high-margin items.And with the growing popularity of return barsstores that pack and ship returns for partnering retailersthere is an opportunity to drive additio

78、nal store traffic and expand the footprint of their client base,an ideal situation during inflationary times.Recent data suggests that retailers participating in return bars save more than 20%in processing costs.43Figure 5.Reverse logistics recommendationsOffer exchanges for online purchasesUse bloc

79、kchain to track transaction and return historyIssue conditional credit upon carrier pickupSell returned items at markdowns instead of incurring costs to move them to distribution centersProvide in-person return optionsConsider becoming a return bar to drive additional store trafficUse electronic sol

80、utions to simplify return processes for stores and fulfillment centersHedge against shipping volatility by using multiple vendors2023 retail industry outlook1111Digital:Social commerceAs retailers take stock of the changing consumer,six in 10 executives foresee strengthening digital commerce offerin

81、gs as a top growth opportunity.Specifically,many see opportunities around social commerce,with six in 10 expecting consumers to purchase products directly on social media platforms in 2023.Executives see social influencers as an opportunity to acquire micro-segmented consumers as demographic changes

82、 lead to new needs,desires,and preferences.Another appealing factor is that digitally native generations are gaining more purchasing power and showing up in significant ways with social commerce.For example,60%of Gen Z and 56%of millennials planned to use social media as part of their holiday shoppi

83、ng journey in 2022.44Creating brand loyalty and profitabilityInvesting in this channel now is particularly attractive as social commerce may have cost efficiencies for retailers in customer acquisition and retention,among other ways.For example,paid social media search advertising can reduce acquisi

84、tion costs,given the targeted nature of the advertising.45Collaborating with influencers can produce efficiencies as well.The average consumer is more willing to trust a brand if they see it advertised by a creator they already know within the real world.The trust,interest,and love toward their favo

85、rite creators transfer to the brand.46 When brands partner with the right creators,they can gain access to potential consumers who can be acquired,sidestepping a significant element of the brands marketing work.In addition,instead of trying to be omnipresent on all social channels,retailers can leve

86、rage the set base and community that creators have developed across multiple social platforms.Given the perks of the platform,seven in 10 executives surveyed expect retailers to collaborate with social media networks and influencers to benefit from growth in social commerce.Its such a promising chan

87、nel that more than half of leaders and laggards agree that consumers will increasingly purchase products directly on social media platforms and acknowledge the strong growth prospects of social commerce in the next five years.Social strategies for successThe cost of acquiring a new customer can be u

88、p to six to seven times more than retaining old customers,47 and social commerce can help reinforce existing customer loyalty.Retailers should invest in technologies to provide a seamless purchasing experience within social channels and shoppable media to nudge users toward purchases and create loya

89、lty.Enabling shoppable tags with product information,embedding the brand website into the social media app,and enabling in-app transactions can help reduce friction on the shopping journey.This can help users quickly identify and purchase products within a few clicks.Loyalty toward influencers can t

90、ranslate into loyalty toward brands.Unfortunately,this extends to influencer controversies.To hedge against such risks,brands should build a real strategy involving diverse influencers from different walks of life and geographies that reflect the changing consumer.Figure 6.Social commerce trends on

91、the riseSocial media influenceDigital adoptionAverage time spent on social media increased by more than 60%in the past decade5161%of social media users trust influencers,while only 38%trust brand recommendations5232%of Americans have made a purchase on a social media platform in the past year5394.4%

92、of millennials are smartphone users,and 37%are smart wearables users,as of 202248Average time spent with digital media increased from 6.8 hours per day in 2019 to 8.1 hours in 202149In 2022,43%of Americans used a buy now,pay later(BNPL)service,up from 31%in 2021502023 retail industry outlook12Despit

93、e the spate of bad economic news,the keyword among retailers is resiliency.Theyve done it beforenot too long ago,during the worst pandemic-related lockdowns and shortagesand they can do it again.Market challenges will always be a factor,and retailers are learning that they cannot rely on traditional

94、 cost-cutting alone to navigate the latest downturn.Instead,retailers should examine how theyve been most productive in recent years,honing omnichannel,supply chain management,and digital commerce to protect margins and aim for profitability in the future.And the real X-factor is the rapidly evolvin

95、g consumer.Ensuring the consumer experience is at the heart of investments may be the key to prospering when the dust finally settles.Summary2023 retail industry outlook122023 retail industry outlook13Nick HandrinosVice Chairman andUS Retail&Consumer Products LeaderDeloitte LLP+1 203 905 2723Lupine

96、SkellyResearch LeaderUS Retail,Wholesale&DistributionDeloitte Services LP+1 206 716 7187The authors would like to thank Brian Baker,Danny Bachman,Akrur Barua,Maura Leddy,Brooke Auxier,Rob Harrold,Todd Jansma,Kusum Manoj Raimalani,Manogna Marthi,Anup Raju,Negina Rood,Margaret Sparks,Ram Sangadi,Srini

97、vasarao Oguri,and Jimmy Zheng.This publication contains general information only and Deloitte is not,by means of this publication,rendering accounting,business,financial,investment,legal,tax,or other professional advice or services.This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or

98、 services,nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business.Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business,you should consult a qualified professional adviser.Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person

99、 who relies on this publication.AuthorsAcknowledgments2023 retail industry outlook14Endnotes1.This survey was commissioned by Deloitte and conducted online by an independent research company from October 21 to October 31,2022.It polled a sample of 50 retail industry executives,of which 70%were from

100、companies with annual revenues of$10 billion or more.The respondents included C-suite and senior executives who were directly responsible or exerted significant influence on major strategic initiatives in their organization.2.Retail sales exclude sales at automobile and parts dealers,and gasoline st

101、ations,but include sales at food services and drinking places.3.All data is from US government agencies.Unless stated otherwise,all data is sourced through Haver Analytics.4.Daniel Bachman,“United States Economic Forecasts:Q4 2022,”Deloitte Insights,to be published in December 2022.5.Bureau of Labor

102、 Statistics(BLS),“Establishment survey,”sourced through Haver Analytics,accessed November 2022.6.Real retail sales are derived by deflating nominal sales by the Consumer Price Index(CPI)for all urban consumers.7.Consumer spending in this section refers to real spending,not nominal spending,unless me

103、ntioned otherwise.8.Neel Desai,“How is CAC changing over time?,”ProfitWell,August 14,2019.9.Tom Perkins,“Revealed:Top US corporations raising prices on Americans even as profits surge,”The Guardian,April 27,2022.10.First Insight,“The state of consumer spending:Gen Z shoppers demand sustainable retai

104、l,”press release,November 23,2021.11.Ibid.12.Alexandre Tanzi and Mike Dorning,”Top 1%of U.S.earners now hold more wealth than all of the middle class,”Bloomberg,October 8,2021.13.Olivia Rockeman and Catarina Saraiva,“Millennials are running out of time to build wealth,”Bloomberg,June 3,2021.14.”US b

105、uying power,by race/ethnicity,20002025,”Insider Intelligence,August 11,2021.15.Carl Davis,Emma Sifre,and Spandan Marasini,The geographic distribution of extreme wealth in the U.S.,Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy,October 13,2022.16.Trust for Americas Health,”State of obesity 2022:Better pol

106、icies for a healthier America,”press release,September 27,2022.17.Sabrina Tavernise,”The U.S.birthrate has dropped again.The pandemic may be accelerating the decline,”New York Times,May 5,2021.18.United States Census Bureau,”65 and older population grows rapidly as baby boomers age,”June 25,2020.19.

107、Richard Fry and Kim Parker,“Early benchmarks show post-millennials on track to be most diverse,best-educated generation yet,”PEW Research Center,November 15,2018.20.National Retail Federation(NRF),“Retail shrink totaled$61.7 billion in 2019 amid rising employee theft and shoplifting/ORC,”press relea

108、se,July 14,2020.21.Marc Cota-Robles and David Gonzlez,“Retail theft at Walmart may lead to raised prices and store closures,CEO says,”ABC7 News,December 7,2022.22.Patrick Barnard,“Retail crime up thanks to down economy,”Multichannel Merchant,January 8,2009.23.Rodney R.Sides and Lupine Skelly,“Why ma

109、king good on green promises can be a win for retailers,”MIT Sloan Management Review,June 30,2022.24.US Department of Commerce,“Job openings:Retail trade,”accessed November 30,2022.25.Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,“Wage Growth Tracker,”accessed December 11,2022.26.To supplement our leader-laggard a

110、nalysis,we conducted a financial analysis to identify leading retailers and research their strategic initiatives.Our financial analysis used the following criteria to identify top-performing retailers.Criteria 1:Nine retailers featured in the top 30th percentile across the following metrics:3-year T

111、SR 3-year average ROA 3-year EM-productive Criteria 2:13 retailers featured in the top 30th percentile across the following metrics:3-year revenue growth 3-year EBITDA margin2023 retail industry outlook1527.Seeking Alpha,“Costco Wholesale Corporation(COST)Q1 2023 earnings call transcript,”Costco Who

112、lesale Corporation,December 8,2022.28.Christopher Grimes and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson,“California ports logjam eases after holiday import rush,”Financial Times,November 14,2022.29.Melissa Repko,“Retailers biggest holiday wish is to get rid of all that excess inventory,”CNBC News,November 13,2022.30

113、.Martin Farrer,“Zero-Covid policy is costing China its role as the worlds workshop,”The Guardian,December 3,2022.31.Deloitte Insights,2021 Deloitte holiday retail survey,2021,p.19.32.Shelagh Dolan,“The challenges of last mile delivery logistics and the tech solutions cutting costs in the final mile,

114、”Insider Intelligence,April 15,2022.33.Melissa Repko,“Out of stock items plague grocery delivery services.Personal shoppers at Targets Shipt aim to fix that,”CNBC News,October 12,2021.34.Tom Ward,“From ground-breaking to breaking ground:Walmart begins to scale market fulfillment centers,”Walmart Inc

115、.,January 27,2021.35.Frank Holland,“Retailers face rising holiday-return costs due to supply chain issues,a new report says,”CNBC News,December 16,2021.36.SimplicityDX,Social Commerce Returns Playbook,August 2022,p.6.37.NRF,“Retail returns increased to$761 billion in 2021 as a result of overall sale

116、s growth,”press release,January 25,2022.38.VRARA,“VRARGS:VNTANA;Leverage 3D to create more engaging digital experiences during quarantine,”video,16:56,June 2,2020.39.Jennifer Strong,“How retail is using AI to prevent fraud,”MIT Technology Review,September 20,2022.40.Brian Straight,“E-commerce return

117、s:Give the customers what they want,”FreightWaves,April 13,2022.41.LiveAgent,“About LiveAgent,”accessed November 24,2022.42.Parija Kavilanz,“Just keep your returns:Stores weigh paying you not to bring back unwanted items,”CNN Business,June 26,2022.43.Shelley E.Kohan,“Happy Returns locations expand t

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