1、 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.NIQ 2024 Consumer OutlookNavigating the 2024 pressure points to growthNIQ Thought LeadershipJanuary 2024 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Consumers have been tested in more ways than one over th

2、e past year and beyond.Resilience is emerging through change as consumers shift survival tactics into long-term behavioral shifts.This year,expect:continued polarization between the financially insulated and insecure and a renewed focus on planning for proactive health&retirement.ResilientThe state

3、of consumers is pressuredHeading into 2024,UneasyFuture focused2 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.1Rising food prices 36%2Increasing utilities19%3Economic downturn17%4Global conflict/crisis escalation13%5Global warming/environment12%6Increased housing costs11%7Personal welfare/happiness

4、10%8Ability to provide basics for family10%9Job security10%10Rising fuel/transportation costs9%3Source:NIQ 2024 Consumer Outlook vs Mid-Year 2023 Survey,GlobalConcerns about geo-political crisis climb to the forefront this yearRising costs of living remain top of mind for consumers=samesamesamewas#1

5、1samewas#4was#10was#7Ranking change vs.Mid 2023was#6was#8=Top 10 concerns among global consumers 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.437%39%34%34%25%26%29%28%Mid 2022Jan 2023Mid 2023Jan 2024Worse OffBetter OffSource:NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024,GlobalQ:Compared to a year ago,is your household

6、 better off or worse off financially34%of consumers feel worse off,but less so than a year agoPolarized financial situations remainConsumer financial positionSentiment year-over-year(%respondents)2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.63%74%78%77%Mid 2022Jan 2023Mid 2023Jan 20245Causes of wor

7、sening financial situations among consumersSource:NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024,GlobalConsumers cant escape the cost-of-living crisis77%Economic slowdown31%42%39%41%Mid 2022Jan 2023Mid 2023Jan 202441%Job insecurity/loss26%31%30%32%Mid 2022Jan 2023Mid 2023Jan 202432%Of the 34%of consumers who are worse o

8、ff this yearIncreased costs of living 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.6Financial polarization will fragment consumer spending classes Source:World Inequality Report 2022,Executive Summary Fig.4Top 10%own 60-80%of global wealthIllustrative d

9、ata/visual/conceptThe extreme polarization of wealth will continue Expect a deepened K-shaped path to future developmentExtreme concentration of capital among the wealthy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%EuropeSouth&SEAsiaEast AsiaN AmericaSub-SaharanAfricaRussia&Central AsiaMiddle Easte&N AfricaLatin Am

10、ericaShare of total wealth by region(%)Bottom 50%Middle 40%Top 10%Top 10%own 60-80%of global wealth 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.7Steady and polarizedThe cautious middle of global consumers persists but continued polarization as the most affluent rise and the most vulnerable show si

11、gns of reboundSource:NIQ 2024 Consumer Outlook vs.2023 Mid-Year Outlook vs.January 2023 Consumer Outlook vs.2022 Mid-Year Outlook,GlobalThe Global Economic Divide-Tracking financial situations and responses.StrugglersRebounders Cautious UnchangedThrivers 19.0%19.0%38.0%14.0%9.0%22.0%16.0%39.0%13.0%1

12、0.0%20.8%19.4%39.3%11.9%8.7%19.5%18.3%40.8%12.7%8.7%Jun 2022 Jan 2024 Jan 2023Jun 202338%Vulnerable ConsumersPlaying the field of financially polarized consumer groups 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.0.41.01.31.31.41.51.72.02.12.32.82.93.03.03.13.33.63.63.74.08Average wage growth forec

13、asts for 2024 compared to consumer price inflation Source:Trading Economics,Note:Total 2024 calculated as average of Q1,Q2&Q3 forecastContinued pressure on consumers as rate of wage growth expected to lag CPI in most markets2.52.81.93.54.84.63.63.94.33.92.66.34.52.432.62.73.6Consumer price inflation

14、Average wage growth estimatesRed=inflation above wage growth Green=wage growth above inflation 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.$100$105$111$124$131201920202021202220239Cost of goods are 31%higher vs.4 years agoSource:NielsenIQ,Total US xAOC,Annual Unit Price%Change 52 weeks to December

15、 30,2023Using the U.S.as an example:FMCG price pressures continue to compound+5.0%+6.1%+11.1%+5.9%Unit Price%Increase 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.10Source:World Economic Outlook database:October 2023 Consumer inflation growth forecasted to slow in 2024 and beyond,but decelerated gr

16、owth is not deflationGlobal CPI%growth forecast3.75.14.13.63.22.72.73.23.63.53.24.78.76.95.84.64.23.93.82010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028Global inflation forecasts indicate prices will ease beyond 2024 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.11Source:

17、NIQ Global Inflation Tracker,Eq Vol%Price Change Monthly Based on a closed group of consistent categories across countries US DollarsGlobal FMCG Equiv.Vol.Price%Change After peaking in January 23,global FMCG prices continue to rise,but at slower rates+11+12+10+11+9+10+10+9+9+7+7+6+5-2-1-3-2-3-2000-1

18、000%Chg.DollarsEQ Vol.Annual Inflation Rate+9.9%FMCG+9-1Food+10-2Non-Food+80Food+11.7%Non-Food+7.8%Chg.Dollars EQ Vol 13.213.213.613.413.211.810.59.88.97.87.46.66.1 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.What does this mean for retailers&brands?Connecting the dots 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.Al

19、l Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.13Source:NIQ Global Price Tracker Annual 52 weeks ending,November 23,sales reflected in USDGlobal inflation is still propping up FMCG performance with volume growth consumption static or softDollar%Chg.-2%0%-4%-1%-1%-2%EQ Vol%Chg.0%-1%+

20、1%0%-7%-3%10%12%10%10%9%8%Total FoodConfect.&SnacksAmbient/Shelf-stable FoodBeveragesFresh/PerishableFoodFrozen Food8%14%10%10%7%4%Total Non-FoodPet FoodHealth&BeautyPaper ProductsHome CareAlcoholDollar%Chg.EQ Vol%Chg.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights

21、 Reserved.14Rising prices are still plaguing several key departments Source:NIQ Global Price Tracker Annual 52 weeks ending,November 23Frozen Food+10%Confect.&Snacks+12%Paper Products+9%Ambient Food+15%Health&Beauty+9%CheckoutAlcohol+7%Home Care+15%Pet Food+16%Food Perishables+10%Beverages+10%Depart

22、ment Inflation Heat Map-Annual+11%Higher than average+9-11%Average130110-13090-11070-900-700.10.5-0.1-0.2-0.3Index to average priceValue playersMainstreamPremium playersAnnual Period ended Oct-202322 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Growing around The Big SqueezeWith pressures felt from

23、 multiple angles,consumers are pivoting around emerging challenges to get by.These maneuvers create green shoots of opportunity that companies can harness to weather the storms ahead.Although there is an expectation the challenging consumer environment will persist,there have been pockets of growth

24、across the last few years that highlight winning strategies.Lets review them23 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.24Source:NIQ Retail measurement services,Latest year ended Q3 2023 vs.year-ago,via Quarter By Numbers,Private label report+12.7%Global Private Label value growth8.7%13.0%13.6%

25、16.7%19.6%24.7%46.0%North AmericaWest EuropeEuropeAsia PacificEast EuropeLatin AmericaAfrica Middle EastPrivate Label PerformanceValue sales%growth vs.year-ago by regionDespite some deceleration in growth,Private Label products continue to deliver on consumers search for better value 2024 Nielsen Co

26、nsumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.25*Impact is calculated as a ratio of percentages of manufacturers growing total sales among those growing innovation sales vs.those with no growth in innovation salesSource:NIQ BASES Innovation Measurement.60k innovations X 5 countries x 4+years,NIQ Consumer Outlook 2

27、024Impact of innovation on overall growth*4.22.91.81.81.6Home CarePersonal CareTotal Average Confect/SnacksBeverages(x Alcohol)Manufacturers growing innovation sales in 2022 were1.8xmore likely to grow overall sales than those with stagnant or declining innovation salesSupporting bottom line and boo

28、sting overall growth during times of volumetric slowdownContinuous innovation can help companies to breakthroughof global consumers say they would purchase a product that has innovated to make it as affordable as possible63%2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All

29、Rights Reserved.26Source:NIQ,Retail Measurement Services NIQ Product Insight,powered by Label Insight;Total US xAOC;Total Food&Beverage vs Better For segment;$%Change vs year ago;4-week trended through week ending September 9,2023Inflation impacted Better For trends in the past year,but growth expec

30、ted in 2024 as sales trend is shifting back$%Chg YA|Food&Beverage vs Better ForInflation drove short-term shifts from wellnessNIQ Better ForENVIRONMENTYOUSOCIETY 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.27After two years of decline,we expect the global T&D market to finally turn positive again

31、in 2024,albeit at a small scaleInes HaagaGfKs insights expert for Consumer Technology and Durables.The following trends and developments are expected to drive growth in 2024:Almost four years after the pandemic,replacement cycles will kick in,especially for faster-moving categories such as smartphon

32、es and mobile PCs.Accordingly,the Telecom category is expected to see growth in 2024 due to new purchases,with the trend continuing towards premium devices.Long-term sales tracking shows that more TV sets are sold in the run-up to major sporting events.The 2024 Olympic Games and European Football Ch

33、ampionship will therefore have a positive impact on the Consumer Electronics category.Source:GfK Market Intelligence Sales Tracking,International Coverage(excl.North America),Sales revenue growth in USD;Jan-Oct 2023 vs Jan-Oct 2022&Jan-Oct 2019Glimmers of hope anticipated for global consumer tech&du

34、rables market in 2024Global T&D market results 2023 vs.previous 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.28Source:NIQ Retail Measurement Services,Total FMCG/CPG,annual period ended Q3 2023 vs.Year-ago-Ecommerce 15 markets considered,via Quarter By N

35、umbers,Channel reportNote:China excludes TikTokDespite deceleration in Asia,e-commerce remains a huge global growth opportunity in 2024Online sales performance%value growth vs YA14.1%-1.8%12.4%9.0%N AmericaAsia Pacific&ChinaEuropeGlobal28.8%29.4%34.1%Saudi ArabiaRomaniaUAE-2.3%-6.1%-6.5%ChinaSingapo

36、reSwedenTop/Bottom performing e-commerce markets%value growth vs YA 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Collaboration improves decision making in many areasA recent NIQ/Coresight study shows:The ability to meet needs of shoppers is a top advantage of enhanced collaborationNeed for higher e

37、fficiencies and productivityAdopting a common platform is the key to shopper-centricityCollaboration has a direct impact on overall company revenue,profitsSource”Coresight researchAbility to meet the needs of shoppersHigher efficiencies in operationsLower costs in the supply chainStronger promotion

38、strategy and calendarFaster order fulfillmentMore advantageous pricingEnabling efficient practices including backhaulingReduce out of stocksBetter forecasting9%9%9%8%7%7%7%7%6%7%7%10%5%4%7%5%4%5%9%6%4%9%7%6%4%5%5%7%7%6%3%6%6%5%5%5%8%9%4%3%7%6%2%3%6%Rank 1Rank 2Rank 3Rank 4Rank 5Retailers and supplie

39、rs see the ability to meet the needs of retailers customers as the top advantage of collaborationEnhanced collaboration is critical to long-term profitable growth 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Our new tech realityGenerative AI will transf

40、orm ways of working and living in society,and new tools and advances could raise global GDP by 7%Source:Goldman Sachs Research,2023Emerging disruptor:2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Embrace and explore value-focused innovation growthNIQ BAS

41、ES&Innovation Measurement63%of global consumers would buy a product thats innovated to make it as affordable as possible 31Theres one universal truth to success in todays market:Data needs to lead the wayBringing it all togetherGet ahead of the emerging value&volume slowdown NIQ Revenue Management-1

42、%Global volume growth in 2023vs.+9%sales growthExpand assortment to capture new tiers of affordability NIQ Assortment OptimizationValue Players GrowValue price tiers were the only group to see sales share growth(+0.6 pts)in 2023 custom analysis Sources:1)NIQ Global Inflation Tracker,Latest month and

43、 year ended Nov.2023 vs.year-ago,sales reflected in USD,2)NIQ Global Strategic Planner,Super-category level analysis across 20 markets,Latest year ended Oct.2023 vs.year-ago,3)NIQ 2024 Consumer Outlook 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Naviga

44、te the fluid channel dynamics of omnishoppers NIQ Omnichannel and Market Performance Measurement11%of global consumers say they have shopped via social media channels beforeConnect to demand for expanded&proactive wellnessNIQ Product Insight40%of global consumers say theyre being proactive with heal

45、th to prevent future issues32Theres one universal truth to success in todays market:Data needs to lead the wayBringing it all togetherSupport the unique needs of consumers under pressure NIQ Consumer Insightsof global consumers feel worse off financially than a year ago.Static compared to Mid 23.Sou

46、rce:NIQ 2024 Consumer Outlook34%2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Key findings:Growing in a declining marketBalancing sustainability and profitability is crucial in a slowing market.Focusing on short-term volume can harm long-term profitabili

47、ty.Promote with purposeDont sacrifice tomorrow by giving away todayMaximize assortmentDont be lost,because you werent foundValue retailers are rising due to demand for affordability.Businesses can adapt marketing and products for diverse consumer needs and differentiate with a varied and expanded pr

48、ice-tiered assortment.Innovate to stay relevantNo news,could become your bad newsPrivate Label growth involved innovating beyond basic value concepts.Brands must reevaluate their positioning,and innovate how they appeal to consumers.33 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consu

49、mer LLC.All Rights Reserved.Key Findings:Growing in a declining marketGrowth in pressured times requires navigating consumer“trade-offs”.Use the voice of the consumer to guide actions you need to cut costs.Make shopper-centric decisionsPersonalize your approach to providing valueBe proactive&precise

50、 with wellnessUncover holistic,lifestyle-driven,attribute-focused growthCompanies need to harness the power of the right messaging and product attribution to convert on consumers interest in their health&longevity.Win with discerning wellness consumers of today.34Reach consumers where they areIts th

51、e wrong time to miss the right placeConsumers move fluidly across channels to fulfil their needs,meaning growth will come from a balance of both online and in-store strategies.The Full View at your FingertipsWith a best-in-class data partner,unleash the most trusted and comprehensive data to reveal new pathways to growth.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC.All Rights Reserved.We deliver the Full View,the worlds most complete and clear understanding of consumer buying behavior that reveals new pathways to growth.35